With two median salaries, what sort of home can a family afford in Lisbon, Porto and the Oeste region?

1. The income benchmark

For this analysis, we consider a household made up of two adults, both employed, each earning the national median net salary.

In 2025, the reference median net monthly salary was €1,050 per employee, based on data from Statistics Portugal's Labour Force Survey, processed and published by EDUSTAT.

Assuming 14 payments a year, with holiday and Christmas allowances paid separately:

• Annual income per employee: €1,050 × 14 = €14,700;
• Annual household income: €29,400;
• Equivalent monthly income, spread over 12 months: €2,450.

Using the median rather than the average is intended to represent the midpoint of the income distribution, reducing the influence that higher salaries have on a national average.

It is important to note, however, that this is a national benchmark. It does not necessarily reflect the actual income of households in the three geographical areas analysed. Nor does it distinguish between age groups: in 2025, the median net salary for employees aged 25 to 34 was €1,010, below the national benchmark used in this exercise.

2. How much could this household afford to pay each month?

To estimate purchasing capacity, we use a reference debt-to-income ratio of 30% of the household's equivalent monthly income.

The calculation is therefore:

• Household monthly income: €2,450;
• Debt-to-income ratio used: 30%;
• Reference monthly mortgage repayment: €735.

We use the average interest rate on new residential mortgage agreements recorded in September 2026, of 3.07%, and a mortgage term of 40 years.

On these assumptions, a monthly repayment of €735 corresponds to a loan of approximately €203,000.

This is a theoretical exercise. Under the current Banco de Portugal guidelines, the maximum mortgage term is 40 years for borrowers aged 35 or under, and 35 years for borrowers over 35. The 40-year term is therefore not available to every household.

For borrowers over 35, the same monthly repayment of €735 would support a theoretical loan of approximately €189,000 over 35 years.

The 30% debt-to-income ratio is also an assumption for this analysis, not a bank approval threshold. Each lender assesses the applicants' financial circumstances, including income, regular expenditure, other borrowing commitments and employment stability, as well as their age.

3. The same property, two financing arrangements

The difference between standard mortgage lending and the arrangement that may benefit from the public guarantee for young buyers is particularly relevant at the initial purchase stage.

Let us consider a property with a purchase price of €203,000, using the same mortgage term and interest rate as in the calculation above.

• Purchase price -> €203,000
• Loan-to-value assumed -> Standard lending: 90% | Young buyers' scheme: up to 100%
• Mortgage loan -> Standard lending: €182,700 | Young buyers' scheme: €203,000
• Initial deposit -> Standard lending: €20,300 | Young buyers' scheme: €0
• Estimated monthly repayment -> Standard lending: €661 | Young buyers' scheme: €735

The monthly repayments shown assume a 40-year mortgage term, which is available to borrowers aged 35 or under. For borrowers over 35, the shorter maximum term would result in a higher monthly repayment. For example, a €182,700 mortgage over 35 years, at the same interest rate, would have an estimated monthly repayment of approximately €710.

Under standard lending, the assumed loan-to-value ratio is 90% of the property value. The buyer would therefore need to provide €20,300 towards the purchase price, in addition to the other costs involved in the transaction.

Under the young buyers' scheme, the public guarantee may allow the lender to finance up to 100% of the transaction value, provided that the legal requirements are met and the bank approves the application.

The difference is not in the ability to make the monthly repayments: the household must still meet the repayments corresponding to the amount actually borrowed. The main advantage of the public guarantee is that it reduces the amount of the buyer's own capital needed at the time of purchase.

The simulation does not include insurance, bank fees, conveyancing costs, maintenance or other expenses associated with buying a property.

4. What is planned for young buyers in 2027?

The 2027 State Budget proposal provides for the continuation of support measures aimed at young people buying their first permanent home, including the public guarantee and the tax exemptions associated with the purchase.

As at the reference date of this analysis, 6 November 2026, the proposal had been approved in principle but had not yet completed its final overall vote.

The continuation of these measures is therefore presented in this article as a forecast based on the Government's proposal, rather than as a measure whose final approval had already been completed.

The public guarantee is intended for young people aged between 18 and 35 who meet the legal requirements, including the income limits, the requirement not to own residential property and the maximum transaction value.

It is important to understand the nature of this mechanism: the State guarantee is neither a grant nor a contribution towards the purchase price of the property. It is a guarantee provided to the lender, which may make it possible to obtain a higher loan under the scheme. The buyer remains fully responsible for repaying the mortgage.

Mortgage approval continues to depend on the lender's assessment of the applicant's creditworthiness.

5. What can €203,000 buy in each market?

To compare the three geographical areas, we use the median values per square metre published by Statistics Portugal in its Housing Bank Valuation Survey for September 2026.

The figures are as follows:

• Greater Lisbon -> All housing: €3,452/m² | Flats: €3,525/m² | Houses: €2,942/m²
• Porto Metropolitan Area -> All housing: €2,325/m² | Flats: €2,473/m² | Houses: €1,850/m²
• Oeste -> All housing: €2,056/m² | Flats: €2,280/m² | Houses: €1,841/m²

Applying a purchase price of €203,000 to the median values for flats and houses gives the following indicative floor areas:

• Greater Lisbon -> Flats: 57.6 m² | Houses: 69.0 m²
• Porto Metropolitan Area -> Flats: 82.1 m² | Houses: 109.7 m²
• Oeste -> Flats: 89.0 m² | Houses: 110.3 m²

For this geographical comparison, €203,000 is treated as the purchase price. It corresponds to the full financing scenario illustrated in the young buyers' scheme, subject to the lender's approval and the applicable valuation rules. Under standard lending, a buyer purchasing a property at this price would normally need to provide a deposit.

These results allow us to compare the relationship between the purchase price considered and median bank valuation figures in each geographical area.

They do not, however, represent a list of properties actually available for purchase. The floor areas are theoretical calculations based on median values, not asking prices or guaranteed transaction prices.

6. Oeste: a municipality-by-municipality view

The Oeste region has internal differences that justify a more detailed analysis.

For this comparison, we include only municipalities for which Statistics Portugal published median values for the relevant category in September 2026. A municipality missing from one of the lists simply means that no municipal figure was published for that category and period; it does not mean that there are no properties that have been valued or are available.

Flats (€203,000)

• Torres Vedras -> Median value: €2,679/m² | Theoretical floor area: 75.8 m²
• Peniche -> Median value: €2,208/m² | Theoretical floor area: 91.9 m²
• Caldas da Rainha -> Median value: €2,164/m² | Theoretical floor area: 93.8 m²
• Alcobaça -> Median value: €1,989/m² | Theoretical floor area: 102.1 m²

Houses (€203,000)

• Torres Vedras -> Median value: €2,083/m² | Theoretical floor area: 97.5 m²
• Lourinhã -> Median value: €1,938/m² | Theoretical floor area: 104.7 m²
• Óbidos -> Median value: €1,970/m² | Theoretical floor area: 103.0 m²
• Caldas da Rainha -> Median value: €1,726/m² | Theoretical floor area: 117.6 m²
• Bombarral -> Median value: €1,741/m² | Theoretical floor area: 116.6 m²
• Cadaval -> Median value: €1,672/m² | Theoretical floor area: 121.4 m²
• Alcobaça -> Median value: €1,505/m² | Theoretical floor area: 134.9 m²

These figures should be read with the same reservations as those applied to the regional comparison. The theoretical floor area does not, in itself, tell us about the property's layout, condition, precise location or individual characteristics.

7. What does Casa Gold's experience add to the figures?

Casa Gold's experience of working with prospective buyers highlights a number of situations that help explain the gap between a financial simulation and the successful completion of a purchase.

The public guarantee does not solve insufficient income

Our work with prospective buyers has shown that a significant proportion expect the public guarantee to resolve a deeper financial difficulty: insufficient income to buy the type of home they are looking for.

The guarantee can help overcome the lack of personal savings needed for the initial deposit. It does not, however, increase the household's monthly income or its ability to meet a higher mortgage repayment.

Where the problem lies in the ability to make the repayments, rather than simply in raising the deposit, the public guarantee does not address the underlying difficulty.

A mortgage illustration is not a mortgage approval

It is common to hear a buyer say that the bank has told them they could purchase a property up to a certain value. This indication is often interpreted as a guarantee that the mortgage will be granted.

It is not.

A mortgage illustration, even when based on a detailed assessment of the customer's circumstances, is an indication of potential borrowing capacity. It is not a firm commitment by the bank, nor is it equivalent to approval of a mortgage application.

For a mortgage secured against a property to be approved, the property must undergo a bank valuation carried out by a qualified valuer. This valuation seeks to establish the property's value according to technical criteria and defined parameters, but it also involves a professional assessment of the property's characteristics and location.

For that reason, the outcome cannot be predicted with certainty. The same property may receive different valuations, particularly where there are differences in the assessment of its characteristics, the selection of comparable properties or the interpretation of its location.

Even when the valuation supports the amount being requested, this does not mean that the mortgage has automatically been approved. It is an important step, but the lender must still complete its creditworthiness assessment and make its final decision.

Approval can leave the buyer at the limit of their financial capacity

Another situation we observe frequently is that buyers, having secured mortgage approval, are left with very little of their savings available.

Any expense that has not been properly anticipated can become a problem. In some cases, it may prevent the purchase from going ahead; in others, it is covered through alternative forms of borrowing, often personal loans.

Buying a home can therefore represent the limit of many households' financial capacity at that particular time. This has an impact on everything that follows: managing the family budget, dealing with unexpected expenses and the ability to meet other spending or investment needs.

This is not limited to buyers using the public guarantee. It also affects households obtaining finance under standard lending arrangements.

Family support continues to play an important role

Under both arrangements, support from family members often helps make a purchase possible.

Parents or other relatives may provide assistance through gifts, contributing towards the deposit or transaction costs, or by acting as guarantors where the bank accepts this solution.

Such support can be decisive in allowing a purchase to proceed, although it does not remove the buyer's financial responsibility towards the lender.

Securing a mortgage does not mean finding the home you want

Even when a financing solution is available, another difficulty remains: finding a property that meets the family's needs, in the preferred location and within the available budget.

With the same financial capacity, different choices may emerge. A family may decide to remain closer to its preferred location, accepting a smaller property, or look for a larger home further away.

The size of the property can be particularly important for families who already have children or expect their household to grow. On the other hand, ties to a particular town or area, family members, employment, schools or an established social network can make moving to another area very difficult.

The choice is therefore not simply a matter of price per square metre. It is also a decision about the space a family needs and where it wants to build its life.

The risk of focusing only on the initial monthly repayment

When working with buyers, we also observe that attention is often concentrated on the monthly repayment shown in the mortgage illustration and the impact that amount will have on the household budget.

Less attention is not always given to the possibility of interest rates rising or to the effect that changes in borrowing costs may have over several years.

The desire to buy a home is naturally very strong. Faced with that need, buyers may give greater weight to the solution that allows them to proceed at that moment, while paying less attention to less favourable future scenarios.

Interest rates do not follow a linear path, and their future direction cannot be predicted with certainty. However, recent years have shown that mortgage costs can change significantly, with direct consequences for household budgets.

When such difficulties affect a large number of households, governments are often called upon to find ways of responding. These measures may involve public expenditure, ultimately borne by society through taxation.

An assessment of financial capacity should therefore not be limited to the repayment a buyer can afford at the time of purchase. It should also consider how well the household could withstand future changes in borrowing costs.

8. Final considerations

The figures presented allow us to estimate the floor area that a household with two median salaries could theoretically finance in three different markets. But borrowing capacity is only one part of the decision.

Casa Gold's experience shows that, for many families, buying a home is a response to an essential need, often accompanied by considerable financial pressure. Completing the purchase may depend on family assistance, the bank valuation, available savings and the ability to accept commitments that will affect the household budget for many years.

A mortgage illustration therefore sits within a decision that goes well beyond choosing a property. It concerns the possibility of securing a home, remaining in a particular location and building a life, without placing future financial stability under excessive strain.

Portugal has grown and changed significantly over the past five decades. Even so, access to housing remains a genuine difficulty for many households. The expectation that future income will make it possible to accommodate the commitments being taken on is part of many purchasing decisions, but it should not be mistaken for a guarantee.

The figures help us understand what may be within a household's reach. Experience shows that its true ability to buy a home is only demonstrated when the mortgage is approved, a suitable property is found and the family can meet the repayments without undermining the financial balance of its life.

9. Methodology and limitations

This analysis uses a hypothetical household with two employees, each earning the national median net salary of €1,050 per month in 2025.

Annual income has been calculated on the basis of 14 payments, giving a total household income of €29,400 per year, or €2,450 per month when spread over 12 months.

The reference mortgage repayment corresponds to 30% of this equivalent monthly income. The theoretical loan of €203,000 was calculated using an annual interest rate of 3.07% and a 40-year term.

The effective maximum mortgage term depends on the borrowers' ages. The interest rate used is the average for new mortgage agreements in September 2026 and is not a guaranteed offer to any individual buyer.

The values per square metre are taken from Statistics Portugal's Housing Bank Valuation Survey for September 2026. They are median bank valuation figures, not advertised asking prices or guaranteed transaction values.

On 6 November 2026, Eurostat reported that Portugal's average annual gross full-time adjusted salary reached €26,202 in 2025. This indicator is not directly comparable with the median net monthly salary used in this analysis. It represents an annual gross average adjusted to full-time employment, whereas our exercise is based on the median monthly take-home pay. We have retained the latter as it is more appropriate for estimating the purchasing capacity of a household with two middle-income earners.

The floor areas shown are calculated by dividing the theoretical purchase price of €203,000 by the median value per square metre for each geographical area. They do not include purchase costs, taxes, insurance, fees, renovation work or other expenses.

This analysis is not a substitute for an individual mortgage illustration, a property valuation or a lending decision. Approval always depends on the lender's assessment of the specific application.

The comparison uses the same national median income for all three geographical areas. It does not claim that household incomes are the same in Lisbon, Porto and Oeste.

Casa Gold — Market Update Article

Main sources

• EDUSTAT — median net monthly salary in Portugal, 2025, based on Statistics Portugal's Labour Force Survey.
• Statistics Portugal — Housing Bank Valuation Survey, September 2026, tables 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7.
• Banco de Portugal — average interest rate on new residential mortgage agreements, September 2026.
• Banco de Portugal — recommendations on maximum mortgage terms and the assessment of borrowers' creditworthiness.
• Government of Portugal — 2027 State Budget proposal.
• Legislation and official information concerning the public guarantee for young people taking out a residential mortgage.